Well I don’t know about you, but I’ll be a very happy camper once tomorrow is over. On a personal level I’m rather tired of hearing the political banter and ads all over the place and frankly will find November 7 to be a welcome escape. With that said, I’ve been wondering just how accurate the polls will show themselves to be.
We have major commentators on both the right and left claiming the respective candidates winning the electoral college and saying the other side is desperate and these claims are based on certain polling data.
But just let me give you a bit of a run down on polling on the last day of the 2012 presidential campaign.
Gallup’s final poll due out today will show GOP challenger Mitt Romney at 49% compared to Barack Obama at 48% with third party candidates at 2% and undecideds (how anyone can be in this category at this stage is beyond me) at 1%.
Rasmussen polls are equal with that of Gallup.
Both are expected to possibly publish one final poll on election morning.
The American Research Group pegs the national race at a deadheat with each man taking 49%.
In addition there are the, not so scientific polls such as Intrade. Intrade is where real people put up real money on who they see as the winner. For weeks, except on one day, Barack Obama has been a favorite by more than 2 to 1 with those betting he has a 69.2% chance of re-election, while only 33.1% believe that Mitt Romney will be elected.
In the 7-11 poll, where people buy one of two coffee cups to support their candidate, they show Obama cups outsold Romney 59% to 41%. Before you laugh though, you should look at the accuracy of their past predictions (well within 1% of the actual vote for both candidates).
In fact, the numbers for the 7-11 polls in the last three elections are provided by Fox:
2000 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
George W. Bush* 21%** 47.9%
Al Gore 20%** 48.4%
2004 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
George W. Bush* 51% 50.7%
John Kerry 49% 48.3%
2008 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
John McCain 46% 45.7%
Barack Obama* 52% 52.9%
**In the 2000 7-Election, all cup sales, including unmarked “nonpartisan” cups, were tallied. In subsequent years, only the candidate cups were included in the results.
Again, they are unscientific but amazingly accurate in the past.
However, the numbers seem to have a lot of people baffled, including your’s truly. Hopefully by 10pm tomorrow evening we should know who has been putting forth the correct data.
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