Obama and Clinton in Trench Warfare in California’s 53 Congressional Districts for Democratic Delegates on Super Tuesday—A Day When 52% of Elected Delegates Will Be Chosen
Nine days before California votes, along with 21 other states and American Samoa, the race for the Democratic nomination for President is wide open between two candidates: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. On February 5, “Super Tuesday,” 52% of all the elected delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be chosen.
California will send the largest delegation to the convention—441—22% of the 2025 convention votes needed for nomination. While many, myself included, are fascinated by the polls and predictions of who will win California’s primary, the real focus in this state and nationally now turns to a fight for delegates, most of whom will be chosen in each of our 53 Congressional Districts.
While the statewide vote will provide a candidate with “momentum” and a victory, what is lost with this analysis is that we are electing delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The bulk of the action here takes place locally, in each of our state’s 53 Congressional Districts. 241 of California’s 441 delegates are elected based on the share of the vote the candidates for President receive in those districts. Only 81 delegates are elected “at-large” and go to the winner of the statewide vote. [Correction or clarification–these are awarded in proportion to the state vote.]
The remaining 119 delegates are selected (not elected). These include 66 “super delegates” (Members of Congress, Democratic National Committee (DNC) Members, and a former DNC Chair). Also 48 Pledged Party Leaders / Elected Officials (PLEOs) committed to candidates who receive at least 15% of the statewide vote and apportioned by their share of the vote. Another 5 are also appointed who are “unpledged” to any candidate.
The elections that have taken place have elected 137 delegates, with Barack Obama leading with 63, Hillary Clinton with 48, and John Edwards with 26. California will elect two and half times as many delegates as have already been chosen on February 5.
There’s been much talk about “momentum” with each result so far—seesawing between Clinton and Obama, with each of them counted out at least once by a number of commentators. What the elections and caucuses to date have really done, besides the selection of these delegates, is to help capture the attention of voters in the states coming up, including California.
I have many friends who have been supporters of John Edwards, but without a win, even in the early states he has spent considerable time and resources in—including his state of birth South Carolina, which was the only state he won in 2004—and running out of money, he will get precious few delegates in California and will be shut out of most Congressional Districts if he polls anywhere near the 10% he is at statewide according to the Field Poll.
Beyond that, I can’t tell you who will win California’s statewide vote. We’ve analyzed polls released this last week by the Field Poll that showed Clinton ahead 39% to 27% and the Public Policy Institute of California that had Clinton ahead 43% to 28% statewide. Both of these polls were taken January 13 or 14 through January 20. They are out of date by a week or more—an eternity in this election cycle of great volatility.
What I thought was significant was the breakdown in the Field Poll that had Clinton ahead by only 5 points, 37% to 32%, amongst those who are voting by mail. Her larger overall lead in the poll was based on a prediction of a bigger margin of votes in day of election voters—those Field had predicted are likely to trudge to the polls on February 5.
So, Clinton may have a slight lead in those who have already voted (maybe half of the vote by mail voters who will be 43% of the electorate in the Democratic primary according to Field). But for the remaining half of VBM voters—and for the precinct voters—there can be shifts before Election Day. And, if any of the voting patterns from earlier states is a guide, these shifts can be large.
Plus there is the question of who will actually vote. In the earlier states, there has been a massive Democratic turnout—larger than predicted—and those additional voters have disproportionately been Obama voters, many of them flying below the radar screen of pollsters’ models for likely voters.
Message to all California Democrats—and independents (decline to state voters) who can vote in the California Democratic primary: Your vote matters. Delegates will be elected locally, so regardless of who is ahead or behind in the polls statewide, don’t become over confident or discouraged. Get out and vote—as if your vote will determine who the nominee and most probably the next President will be. This is an election where your vote counts, as much as any in recent memory, and I wouldn’t take anything for granted.
If I dare use the Orange County Register for analysis, take a look at California really in play on Super Tuesday which begins:
“Now it matters.
“We’ve heard before that California might be in play, could be in play, etc. in a presidential election.
“A week from Tuesday, Californians could actually decide the nominees of both political parties.
“Am I overstating it? Maybe. But judging by the activities of the candidates so far, they must think it’s a possibility.”
Some predict the race will be so close that even the vote on February 5 will not decide the nominee. Take a look at this AP article and you’ll get more of a flavor of what may happen.
If you must peek at the polls, this just came in from the Gallup Poll,
a respected organization that has been taking voter surveys for decades:
“Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 13 points among Democratic voters nationwide. All interviews were conducted prior to the news of Obama’s impressive South Carolina win. The initial impact of South Carolina will be measured in Sunday’s interviewing, and Gallup’s three-day rolling average will increasingly reflect the post-South Carolina environment over the next three days. Even before South Carolina, these data suggest Obama has been chipping into Clinton’s formidable lead, which was 20 points about a week ago. It is unclear based on these data what could be behind the smaller Clinton lead — whether it be the expectation that Obama would win South Carolina, reaction to the contentious debate between Clinton and Obama last week, or controversy over Bill Clinton’s statements on the campaign trail.”
Remember, elections are decided by those who cast ballots. And get involved in a campaign. As Scoop Nisker used to say while announcing the news on KSAN radio decades ago, “If you don’t like the news, go out and make some of your own.”
To the polls!
