Obama Beats McCain in California 54-37% and Wins All Groups Except Republicans in New PPIC Poll4 min read

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Clinton Also Prevails But By Slightly Lower Margin

The well respected Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has released a poll within the last hour showing Barack Obama winning the November election in California by 17 points and getting the largest prize of Electoral College votes of any state—53 of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Hillary Clinton also wins—by 12 points over McCain.

Obama leads in all subgroups except that of Republicans. He wins the white vote, does better with the Golden State’s women voters than men, and cleans up with independents and Latinos. He has higher favorable ratings (59% to 36%) than Clinton (46% favorable to 51% unfavorable) overall and his favorable ratings continue strongly with both Democrats and Independents.

The big loser here—John MCain—who has a 53% to 42% unfavorable rating with all likely voters and does poorly with Independents and Latinos.

This is a poll of a very large sample of Californians—2003 adults—with 1086 likely voters and a margin of error with likely voters of 3%. It was taken between May 12 and 18. The full poll is not yet available online to the public but the embargo was lifted as of 10 p.m. A link will be provided as soon as that is available. [Editor’s note: You can now read the entire extensive poll by clicking here.]

Here are the details.

Favorable/Unfavorable Opinions

By a margin of 59% to 36%, all likely voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama. He is seen favorably by Democrats 78% to 18%, Independents 60% to 33%, and Latinos 69% to 25%. Even with California Republicans, 34% see him favorably and 59% see him unfavorably.

Hillary Clinton is seen unfavorably by 51% of all likely voters and favorably by 46%. She is seen favorably by Democrats 69% to 28%, by Independents 50% to 46%, and by Latinos 72% to 24%. Her unfavorable ratings with California Republicans is 81%, compared with 17% favorable.

McCain only has a favorable rating from Republicans—70 to 24%, but is seen unfavorably by all likely voters 53% to 42%, by the state’s Democrats 72% to 22%, by Independents 53% to 41% and by Latinos 53% to 36%.

Bottom line: Obama has a net plus rating from likely voters of 23% and McCain has a net unfavorable rating of 9%. Obama has a net 27% positive rating from Independents versus McCain’s 12% negative net rating with this swing group. He has better ratings with Democrats than McCain has with his own Republican Party voters. Obama is a positive net 43% with Latinos whereas McCain is a negative 15% with this group. The results are borne out with who voters would vote for in November. With a Democrats holding better than a 10 point advantage in registration in this state and these ratings from them and Independents, he will win this state big. Talk of making inroads into the Latino vote by Republicans in this state are not materializing.

Presidential Vote in November: Obama Over McCain 54% to 37%

If the vote were held today—even after a hard fought battle for the nomination—Obama wins 54% to 37% over McCain with only 2% voting for another party’s candidate and only 7% undecided. He gets 81% of the Democratic vote and wins the Independent vote by 20 points, 55% to 35%. John McCain picks up less of the Republican vote—73% and Obama gets more Republicans (19%) than McCain picks up Democratic votes (10%).

Any talk of defection of women, Latinos, and whites does not materialize. Obama wins the male vote 52% to 39%, the women’s vote 57% to 35%, Latinos 69% to 20%, and whites 49% to 43%.

Hillary Clinton would win the state 51% to 39%. What is curious is that amongst the fabled white votes, she wins narrowly, 46% to 45%, but when we get down to subgroups of likely voters that the margin of error goes up substantially. What is significant here is that Obama does not have a drop off in California with these voter groups that have been talked about much in the press lately.

You can’t win California with Republican votes only.

Bonus

At the end of the poll, in the questionnaire and results, we learn that Republicans are now in third place with Californians! When asked: “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party?” 45% said Democratic, 26% volunteered neither, and 21% said Republican.

There’s a lot more to this poll on the California ballot propositions, the budget, and elected officials, which we will discuss tomorrow.

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